The S&P 500 typically declined during the first year of the 10 recessions that have occurred since 1957. However, the index was usually significantly higher five years and 10 years after the start of ...

While that sounds like a coin toss, when backtested over 80 years of data, every time the model's odds crossed the 50% line, a recession followed within a year. And here's the kicker: That 49% reading ...

Decades of oil shocks offer clues to how markets behave when geopolitical tensions hit energy flows -- and whether the shock ultimately tips the economy into recession often depends on how the Federal ...

Stagflation is an economic cycle marked by high inflation, high unemployment and sluggish economic growth—an uncommon combination of circumstances. The financial headlines of 2025 have been heavy with ...

This year, there has been considerable debate over whether the U.S. economy will experience stagflation or, worse, a recession. View post: Goldman Sachs unveils tariffs prediction, recession forecast ...

Most economists don't expect the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2026. J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) Global Research projects the likelihood of a recession this year at only 35%. The Federal Reserve ...